Forecast Desk
Questions with a deadline, a written resolution rule, and a score that stands.
Every question below is graded by the same collectors that publish the dashboard: a policy rate print, an exchange fixing, a ministry announcement. The rule is written before the forecast, the resolving document is cited, and the record is public whether it flatters us or not.
Open questions · 未决问题
| Probability | Question | Class | Pillar | Resolves by | Left | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | Will the 1-year Loan Prime Rate be cut below 3.00% on or before 30 September 2026? | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-09-30 | 21d | Open 5-member panel |
| 5% | Will the reserve requirement ratio be cut below 9.00% on or before 31 October 2026? | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-10-31 | 52d | Open 5-member panel |
| 25% | Will the manufacturing PMI print at or above 50.0 on or before 31 October 2026? | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-10-31 | 52d | Open 5-member panel |
| 2% | Will the CNY central parity strengthen through 6.70 per US dollar on or before 30 September 2026? | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-09-30 | 21d | Open 5-member panel |
| · | Will the China 10-year government bond yield fall below 1.60% on or before 30 September 2026? Professional | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-09-30 | 21d | Open |
| · | Will SGX 62% Fe iron ore settle at or above US$100 in the front month on or before 30 September 2026? Professional | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-09-30 | 21d | Resolved |
| · | Will the 70-city new home price index print a non-negative month-on-month change on or before 31 October 2026? Professional | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-10-31 | 52d | Open |
| · | Will monthly export growth fall below 10% year on year in a print published on or before 31 October 2026? Professional | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-10-31 | 52d | Open |
| · | Will M2 growth exceed 8.5% year on year in a print published on or before 31 October 2026? Professional | Numeric | Economy & Markets | 2026-10-31 | 52d | Open |
| · | Will MOFCOM publish a further export-control or unreliable-entity list action on or before 30 September 2026? Professional | Event | U.S.–China & Geopolitics | 2026-09-30 | 21d | Resolved |
| · | Will the Cyberspace Administration publish a new generative-AI or algorithm governance action on or before 30 September 2026? Professional | Event | Industry & Tech | 2026-09-30 | 21d | Open |
Track record · 战绩
2 resolved · mean Brier 0.061
Calibration is not yet meaningful: 2 resolved questions against a 50 minimum. Scores are published anyway.
Open the scoreboardAgent surface · 接口
The board, each public question and the scoreboard are published as JSON for agents and downstream pipelines.
How the Desk works · 方法
- A question ships only with its resolver. Every question names the feed, the field and the test that will grade it, in the criterion published beside it.
- The archive answers before the model does. A base rate is computed from our own collected history. Where the archive is too young, the packet says so and no prior is invented.
- Independent panellists, median aggregation. Members reason separately on one bounded, cited evidence packet. The disagreement between them is published, not averaged away.
- Resolution is deterministic and never a model's opinion. An event question resolves YES only when the resolving document can be cited.
- Nothing is rewritten. Probabilities are appended; a resolved question is closed. Every score, including the bad ones, stays on the record.
Boundary · 权限
Public questions carry their full probability, criterion and base rate. The rest of the board, the reasoning chains, the evidence packets, probability history and move alerts are part of a Professional membership.
See membership