Track record
Every resolved question, scored, including the ones we got wrong.
A forecast that is never graded is an opinion. Voids are counted separately and on purpose: when a source stops publishing or our own coverage moves under a question, the honest answer is that it cannot be graded, not that the answer was no.
Calibration building: 7 resolved against a 50 minimum. No accuracy claim is made until the record is long enough to support one.
Score · 评分
- Resolved7
- Mean Brier0.024
- Base-rate Brier0.258
- Skill vs base rate+0.88
- Void0
Calibration is not yet meaningful: 7 resolved questions against a 50 minimum. Scores are published anyway.
Resolved questions · 已结算
| Resolved | Question | Forecast | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Will the 1-year Loan Prime Rate be cut below 3.00% on or before 30 September 2026? | 1% | NO | 0.000 |
| 2026-10-01 | Will the manufacturing PMI print at or above 50.0 on or before 31 October 2026? | 86% | YES | 0.020 |
| 2026-10-01 | Will the CNY central parity strengthen through 6.70 per US dollar on or before 30 September 2026? | 1% | NO | 0.000 |
| 2026-10-01 | Will the China 10-year government bond yield fall below 1.60% on or before 30 September 2026? | 2% | NO | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-09 | Will SGX 62% Fe iron ore settle at or above US$100 in the front month on or before 30 September 2026? | 98% | YES | 0.000 |
| 2026-08-09 | Will MOFCOM publish a further export-control or unreliable-entity list action on or before 30 September 2026? | 65% | YES | 0.122 |
| 2026-10-01 | Will the Cyberspace Administration publish a new generative-AI or algorithm governance action on or before 30 September 2026? | 15% | NO | 0.022 |
Calibration · 校准
| Forecast band | n | YES | Observed rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| 10-20% | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 20-30% | 0 | 0 | · |
| 30-40% | 0 | 0 | · |
| 40-50% | 0 | 0 | · |
| 50-60% | 0 | 0 | · |
| 60-70% | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 70-80% | 0 | 0 | · |
| 80-90% | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 90-100% | 1 | 1 | 100% |