Will the manufacturing PMI print at or above 50.0 on or before 31 October 2026?
52d to the deadline.
Resolution criterion · 结算标准
Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the PMI Manufacturing series in the nbs_monthly feed records a value at or above 50.0 on or before 2026-10-31. The July 2026 print was 49.2, its position below the expansion line being the point of the question. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.
Current estimate · 当前概率
| Probability | 25% |
|---|---|
| Base rate | unavailable: only 2 distinct print(s) in the archive window against a 8 minimum |
| Resolver | PMI Manufacturing gte 50.0 in the nbs_monthly feed |
| Opens | 2026-08-09 |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-31 |
| State | Open 5-member panel |
| Evidence | Limited |
Resolution timing · 结算日程
These publisher-scheduled releases fall inside this question’s observation window, which closes on 2026-10-31.
What is held back · 会员内容
The panel reasoning, the bounded evidence packet behind this estimate, the full probability history and alerts on material moves are part of a Professional membership.
See membership