Forecast Desk · Numeric

Will the manufacturing PMI print at or above 50.0 on or before 31 October 2026?

11d to the deadline.

Resolution criterion · 结算标准written before the forecast

Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the PMI Manufacturing series in the nbs_monthly feed records a value at or above 50.0 on or before 2026-10-31. The July 2026 print was 49.2, its position below the expansion line being the point of the question. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.

Current estimate · 当前概率2026-10-01T06:26:11+08:00

Probability	86%
Base rate	unavailable: only 2 distinct print(s) in the archive window against a 8 minimum
Resolver	PMI Manufacturing gte 50.0 in the nbs_monthly feed
Opens	2026-08-09
Resolves by	2026-10-31
State	Resolved 5-member panel
Evidence	Limited 4 term-matched · 1 dated

53 forecast(s) on record

Resolution timing · 结算日程1 publisher-scheduled release

These publisher-scheduled releases fall inside this question’s observation window, which closes on 2026-10-31.

Sat 31 Oct · 09:30 CST: Monthly Report on Purchasing Managers' Index

Resolution · 结算2026-10-01

YES

PMI Manufacturing = 50.1 on 2026-09-30

Brier 0.020 against a forecast of 86%

What is held back · 会员内容Professional

The panel reasoning, the bounded evidence packet behind this estimate, the full probability history and alerts on material moves are part of a Professional membership.

Open the reasoning chain See membership