Will the 1-year Loan Prime Rate be cut below 3.00% on or before 30 September 2026?
21d to the deadline.
Resolution criterion · 结算标准
Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the 1Y LPR series in the pboc_rates feed records a value below 3.00% on or before 2026-09-30. The rate stood at 3.00% at the 2026-07-20 fixing. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.
Current estimate · 当前概率
| Probability | 3% |
|---|---|
| Base rate | unavailable: no change observed in 23 days of archive, so the window measures its own length rather than this series' change frequency |
| Resolver | 1Y LPR lt 3.0 in the pboc_rates feed |
| Opens | 2026-08-09 |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-30 |
| State | Open 5-member panel |
| Evidence | Insufficient |
Resolution timing · 结算日程
No matching publisher-scheduled release is present in the current calendar. The forecast still resolves against its declared feed through 2026-09-30; the deadline is not presented as an event date.
Open Policy CalendarWhat is held back · 会员内容
The panel reasoning, the bounded evidence packet behind this estimate, the full probability history and alerts on material moves are part of a Professional membership.
See membership