{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "as_of": "2026-09-09T06:42:00+08:00",
  "source": "China Snapshot Forecast Desk",
  "counts": {
    "total": 11,
    "public": 4,
    "member": 7,
    "open": 9,
    "resolved": 2,
    "void": 0
  },
  "track_record_url": "/data/forecasts/track_record.json",
  "questions": [
    {
      "id": "lpr-1y-cut-by-2026-09-30",
      "title": "Will the 1-year Loan Prime Rate be cut below 3.00% on or before 30 September 2026?",
      "criterion": "Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the 1Y LPR series in the pboc_rates feed records a value below 3.00% on or before 2026-09-30. The rate stood at 3.00% at the 2026-07-20 fixing. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "public",
      "status": "open",
      "opens": "2026-08-09",
      "resolve_by": "2026-09-30",
      "resolver_summary": "1Y LPR lt 3.0 in the pboc_rates feed",
      "probability": 0.03,
      "spread": 0.030000000000000002,
      "members": 5,
      "method": "independent_ensemble",
      "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "provisional": false,
      "base_rate": {
        "available": false,
        "kind": "series_change_frequency",
        "probability": null,
        "observed_days": 23,
        "note": "Hazard of any LPR move per observed day in the archive window, projected over the days remaining. Direction is not modelled: the archive is asked how often this rate moves at all.",
        "reason": "no change observed in 23 days of archive, so the window measures its own length rather than this series' change frequency"
      },
      "evidence_quality": {
        "grade": "insufficient",
        "documents": 0,
        "term_matched": 0,
        "dated": 0
      },
      "updated_at": "2026-09-09T06:39:41+08:00",
      "resolution": null
    },
    {
      "id": "rrr-cut-by-2026-10-31",
      "title": "Will the reserve requirement ratio be cut below 9.00% on or before 31 October 2026?",
      "criterion": "Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the RRR series in the pboc_rates feed records a value below 9.00% on or before 2026-10-31. The ratio has stood at 9.00% since the 2025-05-15 effective date. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "public",
      "status": "open",
      "opens": "2026-08-09",
      "resolve_by": "2026-10-31",
      "resolver_summary": "RRR lt 9.0 in the pboc_rates feed",
      "probability": 0.05,
      "spread": 0.04,
      "members": 5,
      "method": "independent_ensemble",
      "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "provisional": false,
      "base_rate": {
        "available": false,
        "kind": "series_change_frequency",
        "probability": null,
        "observed_days": 23,
        "note": "Hazard of any RRR move per observed day in the archive window, projected over the days remaining.",
        "reason": "no change observed in 23 days of archive, so the window measures its own length rather than this series' change frequency"
      },
      "evidence_quality": {
        "grade": "insufficient",
        "documents": 0,
        "term_matched": 0,
        "dated": 0
      },
      "updated_at": "2026-09-09T06:39:55+08:00",
      "resolution": null
    },
    {
      "id": "pmi-mfg-back-above-50-by-2026-10-31",
      "title": "Will the manufacturing PMI print at or above 50.0 on or before 31 October 2026?",
      "criterion": "Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the PMI Manufacturing series in the nbs_monthly feed records a value at or above 50.0 on or before 2026-10-31. The July 2026 print was 49.2, its position below the expansion line being the point of the question. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "public",
      "status": "open",
      "opens": "2026-08-09",
      "resolve_by": "2026-10-31",
      "resolver_summary": "PMI Manufacturing gte 50.0 in the nbs_monthly feed",
      "probability": 0.25,
      "spread": 0.48,
      "members": 5,
      "method": "independent_ensemble",
      "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "provisional": false,
      "base_rate": {
        "available": false,
        "kind": "series_threshold_frequency",
        "probability": null,
        "observed_days": 23,
        "observed_prints": 2,
        "note": "Share of observed prints in the archive window that already satisfied the threshold.",
        "reason": "only 2 distinct print(s) in the archive window against a 8 minimum"
      },
      "evidence_quality": {
        "grade": "limited",
        "documents": 2,
        "term_matched": 2,
        "dated": 1
      },
      "updated_at": "2026-09-09T06:40:11+08:00",
      "resolution": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cny-parity-below-6-70-by-2026-09-30",
      "title": "Will the CNY central parity strengthen through 6.70 per US dollar on or before 30 September 2026?",
      "criterion": "Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the CNY Central Parity USD/CNY series in the cfets_cn feed records a value below 6.7000 on or before 2026-09-30. The 2026-08-07 fix was 6.7904, so YES requires roughly 1.3% of further appreciation. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "public",
      "status": "open",
      "opens": "2026-08-09",
      "resolve_by": "2026-09-30",
      "resolver_summary": "CNY Central Parity USD/CNY lt 6.7 in the cfets_cn feed",
      "probability": 0.02,
      "spread": 0.0,
      "members": 5,
      "method": "independent_ensemble",
      "model": "deepseek-v4-pro",
      "provisional": false,
      "base_rate": {
        "available": true,
        "kind": "series_threshold_frequency",
        "probability": 0.02,
        "observed_days": 30,
        "detail": "0 of 30 observed days already satisfied the condition",
        "note": "Share of observed daily fixes in the archive window already below the threshold.",
        "window": {
          "first_day": "2026-07-27",
          "last_day": "2026-09-08"
        }
      },
      "evidence_quality": {
        "grade": "insufficient",
        "documents": 0,
        "term_matched": 0,
        "dated": 0
      },
      "updated_at": "2026-09-09T06:40:27+08:00",
      "resolution": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cn-10y-below-1-60-by-2026-09-30",
      "title": "Will the China 10-year government bond yield fall below 1.60% on or before 30 September 2026?",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "member",
      "status": "open",
      "resolve_by": "2026-09-30",
      "probability": null,
      "note": "Probability, reasoning and evidence chain require a Professional membership."
    },
    {
      "id": "sgx-iron-ore-above-100-by-2026-09-30",
      "title": "Will SGX 62% Fe iron ore settle at or above US$100 in the front month on or before 30 September 2026?",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "member",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolve_by": "2026-09-30",
      "probability": null,
      "note": "Probability, reasoning and evidence chain require a Professional membership."
    },
    {
      "id": "new-home-prices-mom-non-negative-2026-10-31",
      "title": "Will the 70-city new home price index print a non-negative month-on-month change on or before 31 October 2026?",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "member",
      "status": "open",
      "resolve_by": "2026-10-31",
      "probability": null,
      "note": "Probability, reasoning and evidence chain require a Professional membership."
    },
    {
      "id": "exports-yoy-below-10-by-2026-10-31",
      "title": "Will monthly export growth fall below 10% year on year in a print published on or before 31 October 2026?",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "member",
      "status": "open",
      "resolve_by": "2026-10-31",
      "probability": null,
      "note": "Probability, reasoning and evidence chain require a Professional membership."
    },
    {
      "id": "m2-yoy-above-8-5-by-2026-10-31",
      "title": "Will M2 growth exceed 8.5% year on year in a print published on or before 31 October 2026?",
      "pillar": "economy",
      "question_class": "numeric",
      "access": "member",
      "status": "open",
      "resolve_by": "2026-10-31",
      "probability": null,
      "note": "Probability, reasoning and evidence chain require a Professional membership."
    },
    {
      "id": "mofcom-export-control-action-by-2026-09-30",
      "title": "Will MOFCOM publish a further export-control or unreliable-entity list action on or before 30 September 2026?",
      "pillar": "geopolitics",
      "question_class": "event",
      "access": "member",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolve_by": "2026-09-30",
      "probability": null,
      "note": "Probability, reasoning and evidence chain require a Professional membership."
    },
    {
      "id": "cac-ai-governance-action-by-2026-09-30",
      "title": "Will the Cyberspace Administration publish a new generative-AI or algorithm governance action on or before 30 September 2026?",
      "pillar": "tech",
      "question_class": "event",
      "access": "member",
      "status": "open",
      "resolve_by": "2026-09-30",
      "probability": null,
      "note": "Probability, reasoning and evidence chain require a Professional membership."
    }
  ]
}