Will the CNY central parity strengthen through 6.70 per US dollar on or before 30 September 2026?
21d to the deadline.
Resolution criterion · 结算标准
Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the CNY Central Parity USD/CNY series in the cfets_cn feed records a value below 6.7000 on or before 2026-09-30. The 2026-08-07 fix was 6.7904, so YES requires roughly 1.3% of further appreciation. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.
Current estimate · 当前概率
| Probability | 2% |
|---|---|
| Base rate | 2% |
| Resolver | CNY Central Parity USD/CNY lt 6.7 in the cfets_cn feed |
| Opens | 2026-08-09 |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-30 |
| State | Open 5-member panel |
| Evidence | Insufficient |
Resolution timing · 结算日程
No matching publisher-scheduled release is present in the current calendar. The forecast still resolves against its declared feed through 2026-09-30; the deadline is not presented as an event date.
Open Policy CalendarWhat is held back · 会员内容
The panel reasoning, the bounded evidence packet behind this estimate, the full probability history and alerts on material moves are part of a Professional membership.
See membership