Forecast Desk · Numeric

Will the CNY central parity strengthen through 6.70 per US dollar on or before 30 September 2026?

due to the deadline.

Resolution criterion · 结算标准written before the forecast

Resolves YES if any non-stale collection of the CNY Central Parity USD/CNY series in the cfets_cn feed records a value below 6.7000 on or before 2026-09-30. The 2026-08-07 fix was 6.7904, so YES requires roughly 1.3% of further appreciation. Resolves NO if the deadline passes with no such observation.

Current estimate · 当前概率2026-09-30T06:23:13+08:00

Probability	1%
Base rate	2% 0 of 44 observed days already satisfied the condition
Resolver	CNY Central Parity USD/CNY lt 6.7 in the cfets_cn feed
Opens	2026-08-09
Resolves by	2026-09-30
State	Resolved 5-member panel
Evidence	Insufficient 0 term-matched · 0 dated

52 forecast(s) on record

Resolution timing · 结算日程deadline is not an event date

No matching publisher-scheduled release is present in the current calendar. The forecast still resolves against its declared feed through 2026-09-30; the deadline is not presented as an event date.

Open Policy Calendar

Resolution · 结算2026-10-01

last observed CNY Central Parity USD/CNY = 6.7351 on 2026-09-30; condition never met in the window

Brier 0.000 against a forecast of 1%

What is held back · 会员内容Professional

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