{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "as_of": "2026-09-09T06:42:00+08:00",
  "resolved": 2,
  "void": 0,
  "yes_rate": 1.0,
  "mean_brier": 0.06144999999999999,
  "mean_log_score": 0.22549281170498683,
  "base_rate_brier": 0.5155555555555555,
  "base_rate_comparable_n": 2,
  "brier_skill_vs_base_rate": 0.8808081896551725,
  "calibration": [
    {
      "bucket": "0-10%",
      "low": 0.0,
      "high": 0.1,
      "n": 0,
      "observed_yes": 0,
      "observed_rate": null,
      "mean_probability": null
    },
    {
      "bucket": "10-20%",
      "low": 0.1,
      "high": 0.2,
      "n": 0,
      "observed_yes": 0,
      "observed_rate": null,
      "mean_probability": null
    },
    {
      "bucket": "20-30%",
      "low": 0.2,
      "high": 0.3,
      "n": 0,
      "observed_yes": 0,
      "observed_rate": null,
      "mean_probability": null
    },
    {
      "bucket": "30-40%",
      "low": 0.3,
      "high": 0.4,
      "n": 0,
      "observed_yes": 0,
      "observed_rate": null,
      "mean_probability": null
    },
    {
      "bucket": "40-50%",
      "low": 0.4,
      "high": 0.5,
      "n": 0,
      "observed_yes": 0,
      "observed_rate": null,
      "mean_probability": null
    },
    {
      "bucket": "50-60%",
      "low": 0.5,
      "high": 0.6,
      "n": 0,
      "observed_yes": 0,
      "observed_rate": null,
      "mean_probability": null
    },
    {
      "bucket": "60-70%",
      "low": 0.6,
      "high": 0.7,
      "n": 1,
      "observed_yes": 1,
      "observed_rate": 1.0,
      "mean_probability": 0.65
    },
    {
      "bucket": "70-80%",
      "low": 0.7,
      "high": 0.8,
      "n": 0,
      "observed_yes": 0,
      "observed_rate": null,
      "mean_probability": null
    },
    {
      "bucket": "80-90%",
      "low": 0.8,
      "high": 0.9,
      "n": 0,
      "observed_yes": 0,
      "observed_rate": null,
      "mean_probability": null
    },
    {
      "bucket": "90-100%",
      "low": 0.9,
      "high": 1.0,
      "n": 1,
      "observed_yes": 1,
      "observed_rate": 1.0,
      "mean_probability": 0.98
    }
  ],
  "calibration_building": true,
  "min_resolved_for_calibration": 50,
  "note": "Calibration is not yet meaningful: 2 resolved questions against a 50 minimum. Scores are published anyway.",
  "resolved_questions": [
    {
      "question_id": "sgx-iron-ore-above-100-by-2026-09-30",
      "probability": 0.98,
      "base_rate": 0.06666666666666667,
      "outcome": "yes",
      "resolved_on": "2026-09-09",
      "title": "Will SGX 62% Fe iron ore settle at or above US$100 in the front month on or before 30 September 2026?",
      "access": "member"
    },
    {
      "question_id": "mofcom-export-control-action-by-2026-09-30",
      "probability": 0.65,
      "base_rate": 0.6,
      "outcome": "yes",
      "resolved_on": "2026-08-09",
      "title": "Will MOFCOM publish a further export-control or unreliable-entity list action on or before 30 September 2026?",
      "access": "member"
    }
  ]
}