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China policy dossier

U.S. channel still shut; Beijing runs parallel Central Asia, Balkans, Gulf tracks

The U.S.–China political channel remained shut through mid-October. No leader call, no readout, no working-level meeting appears in this window; the only U.S.-facing traffic is friction — the Justice Department's seizure of seven internet domains it links to Chinese hackers ¹ — and Taiwan, where the Taiwan Affairs Office kept relitigating the September 24 summit's WWII-history item against Lai Ching-te's objections ². The news is structural rather than bilateral: between October 14 and 22 Beijing ran two senior circuits at once, and neither touched Washington.

New in this window is Li Qiang's October 17–22 Uzbekistan–Tajikistan–Russia swing, including the 25th SCO Heads of Government Council and the 31st China–Russia premier's meeting, which pairs with Wang Yi's CICA and Balkan trip — two senior circuits running simultaneously, neither touching Washington ¹². Subnational inbound-investment diplomacy also surfaced explicitly, with Shanghai's mayor courting Hillhouse and multinational investors on AI and biotech ³. The standing assessment (dead U.S. channel, hedging through other tracks) is confirmed, not revised.