Trade & Exports

China's external surplus is still near record levels and the two-track trade strategy — deepen non-US market ties while hedging the US truce — is confirmed, not changed, by the latest evidence. SAFE's July 2026 balance-of-payments data put goods and services exports at $424.2bn, imports at $333.0bn and the combined surplus at $91.2bn; the goods balance alone contributed $110.3bn while services ran a $19.1bn deficit ¹. The new provincial data do not alter that picture: Zhengzhou Xinzheng Comprehensive Bonded Zone recorded 288.3bn yuan in January–July import-export value, up 33.7% year-on-year and a record for the period, ranking third among all comprehensive bonded zones nationwide ². Inland bonded zones are becoming the newest export hubs in the same structural story.

The mechanism remains goods-driven. Services trade is persistently in deficit, so the surplus cannot come from services; every policy lever — from bonded zones to matchmaking expos to FTZ tariff lines — is aimed at moving goods exports toward non-US markets. Henan's double-digit bonded-zone growth, alongside Hainan's FTZ expansion, shows that the strategy is being executed at subnational level, not just in MOFCOM announcements.

On the US track, the détente remains shallow. On August 31 the Federal Register posted final affirmative anti-dumping and countervailing duty determinations on van-type trailers and subassemblies from China ^3,4, a reminder that the US trade-remedy machine keeps running even as diplomatic channels stay open. The new US-Canada trade row adds a parallel signal: US voices are trying to drag China into the dispute, but Chinese analysts correctly note that Ottawa's move toward other partners is a response to Washington's protectionism, not to Chinese pressure ⁵. Beijing is therefore managing risk, not betting on a durable truce.

The diversification track is delivering incrementally. Under the 'Jiangsu Brand Products Silk Road' platform, Jiangsu firms signed $150mn in intended deals in three days at the Central Asia Import-Export Expo in Almaty in late August, up 25% year-on-year, and 20 Jiangsu green-equipment companies at the Africa (Kenya) Power, Energy and Water Expo attracted over $30mn in intended cooperation ⁶. These are real, evidence-based gains, but they are still small relative to the scale of US market exposure.

Multilateral and provincial vehicles continue to reinforce the same direction. Hainan's free trade port, now two years into customs closure, has expanded zero-tariff lines from 21% to 74% of tariff lines, covering more than 6,600 product types; a Changchun press conference on August 29 highlighted deepened Hainan-Jilin cooperation in data services, NEV exports, biomedicine and tourism ⁷. A separate Hainan high-tech matchmaking event in Shanghai focused on biomedicine and the digital economy ⁸. The SCO and Global Development Initiative coverage ^9,10 frames this as a governance narrative, adding diplomatic weight but no trade data.

The limit remains the surplus itself. The more goods exports grow, the more trade remedies accumulate across multiple markets. On the domestic side, Jiangsu has expanded local trade-in subsidies to embodied-intelligence robots, digital cameras and drones — primarily consumption stimulus, with at best a secondary effect on import demand ¹¹. Hainan port and dangerous-goods safety inspections ¹² are administrative hardening, not a trade accelerator. Outlook: continued high export volumes and a large surplus, with a shallow US truce, steady incremental diversification into ASEAN, Central Asia and Africa, and a slow accretion of barriers as the principal risk.