Trade & Exports

China's external surplus remains near record and the two-track strategy — deepening trade with non-US markets while hedging the US truce — is being reinforced, not revised, by the latest data and policy signals. SAFE data for July 2026 show goods and services exports of $424.2bn, imports of $333.0bn and a surplus of $91.2bn, with the goods balance alone at $110.3bn and services still in deficit at $19.1bn ¹. Goods exports remain the entire engine of the external surplus.

The composition of that engine explains the policy push toward ASEAN and 'Global South' markets. MOFCOM reports China remains Kyrgyzstan's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade of $11.7bn in January–July 2026 driven by electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics and mechanical-electrical goods ². The same 'new three' products that trigger overcapacity complaints in Western markets are being redirected to Central Asia and other non-US destinations. Subnational matchmaking is reinforcing this: Shandong and Vietnam's Bac Ninh province held an enterprise conference focused on electronics, semiconductors, logistics and agricultural processing ³.

On the US track, the détente is real but shallow. SCMP reports Chinese executives may join Xi Jinping's US trip and that the one-year Busan truce extension is 'almost certain'; Wang Yi's meeting with US ambassador David Perdue was about implementing leaders' consensus ⁴. Yet the US trade-remedy machine continues: on Aug 31 the Federal Register posted final affirmative AD and CVD determinations on van-type trailers and subassemblies from China ^5,6, following Aug 28 no-shipment findings on hardwood plywood, a court-related amendment to carbon steel butt-weld pipe fittings, and postponement of preliminary PTMEG determinations ^7,8,9. Tariff policy remains erratic, so Beijing cannot treat the truce as durable.

The multilateral and provincial tracks are offsetting this. The Third APEC Senior Officials' Meeting in Dalian produced consensus on practical cooperation in anti-corruption, oceans and fisheries, food security, health and energy, and chair Chen Xu said preparations for the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen in November are entering a new and important stage ¹⁰. Gansu's Provincial Party Committee held a special study session on deep integration into BRI construction and building an 'open strong province' ¹¹. Hainan is operationalising its free trade port: Feng Fei pressed Haikou Customs to accelerate zero-tariff and processing-value-added domestic-sales exemption policies after the island-wide customs closure ¹², and Hainan held a high-tech industry matchmaking event in Shanghai targeting biomedicine and digital economy, linking the port to Yangtze River Delta innovation resources ¹³.

The limit is that the surplus itself fuels the backlash. The more China's goods exports grow, the more anti-dumping and countervailing actions accumulate across multiple markets, not only the US. The new van-trailer determinations are a reminder that trade remedies targeting China remain a permanent feature; whether new markets can absorb redirected volumes is the key uncertainty.

Outlook: expect continued high export volumes and a large surplus, with the US truce extended but shallow, and a growing emphasis on APEC, BRI and free trade ports. The risks are a slow accretion of barriers and insufficient absorptive capacity in alternative markets, not a near-term collapse in exports.