Monetary Policy & RMB

CIPS network growth accelerated markedly in Q2 2026, adding 17 direct and 53 indirect participants to reach 210 direct and 1,619 indirect participants across 130 countries [8]. This expansion, which outpaces the prior quarter's modest additions [10], underscores deepening RMB internationalization infrastructure, supported by a list of 14 fund custodian banks including foreign institutions like Standard Chartered and HSBC China [9].

On the foreign exchange front, SAFE's June 2026 data confirmed a net forex purchase surplus of $566 billion (banks bought $2,978B, sold $2,412B; H1 cumulative $2,712B) [7]. The July 17 press conference reiterated market stability and policy readiness, indicating no immediate need for intervention [6]. The PBOC made no new rate, RRR, or liquidity moves during the period, and Governor Pan Gongsheng's meeting with the Libya central bank on July 15 signaled routine cooperation rather than policy shifts [5].

The easing-vs-stability tradeoff persists: record consumer defaults and potential oil price pressure from Iran sanctions limit room to ease, while the hefty forex surplus and expanding CIPS network provide buffers against external shocks. No new policy actions or data changes have emerged from the latest documents, maintaining the prior standing brief's assessment.