# Trade & Exports: China's exports diversify to SCO, new markets as US pressure persists

China Snapshot · created by Tristan McInnis · reading v162
Updated: 2026-09-01T03:15:02.805158+00:00
Permanent reading: https://china-snapshot.com/analysis/dossiers/trade/v162.html
AI-assisted interpretation; verify against the cited original sources.

## Current understanding at this revision

China's export engine is still running at high volume, but the structural shift is now measurable: trade with other SCO members hit 8% of China's total foreign trade, rising from $12.1 billion in 2001 to $523.5 billion in 2025, according to MOFCOM spokesperson Huang Ling [1](https://www.sc.gov.cn/10462/13241/2026/9/1/e3f8c6ca24a040a1a75add868d053e6c.shtml). This is the strongest anchor yet for the diversification story — Beijing is actively building alternative trade architecture even as Washington keeps the surplus issue on the G20 agenda. The combination of value-chain upgrading, geographic diversification, and accumulated trade remedies defines the current moment.

The value-chain story remains centered on high-end manufacturing. Liaoning's Jan–Jul exports rose 12.2% to 2634.8 billion yuan, with machinery and electronics accounting for 53.3% (up 2.9 percentage points); ship exports grew 1.78 times and industrial robots 164.2% [2](https://www.ln.gov.cn/web/ywdt/jrln/wzxx2018/2026083107115429468/index.shtml). Hengli Heavy Industry's two more VLCC orders from Greece's Danaos (20 total) and the first contract with Italy's Pemont for two LRII tankers signal entry into southern-European high-end shipbuilding [2](https://www.ln.gov.cn/web/ywdt/jrln/wzxx2018/2026083107115429468/index.shtml). The 'smile curve' shift — from assembly to design and core components — is now the dominant export dynamic.

New diversification vectors are multiplying. Zhejiang's trade with other SCO members hit a record 292.03 billion yuan in Jan–Jul (+9.8%), with imports up 20.2%, and mechanical/electrical products at 52.7% of exports [3](https://www.ezhejiang.gov.cn/2026-08/31/c_1209664.htm). The CCPIT is stepping up SCO business matchmaking, industrial-supply-chain cooperation, and commercial legal services; six SCO member states exhibited at the fourth China International Supply Chain Expo in June [4](https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202608/31/content_WS6a956a52c6d00ca5f9a0ce52.html). Regional trade-promotion events are also broadening: Liaoning's third export fair in Ulaanbaatar signed a $4 million steel-structure order [5](https://www.ln.gov.cn/web/ywdt/jrln/wzxx2018/2026090106574940169/index.shtml), Macao's Singapore roadshow produced 74 signed agreements [6](https://www.gcs.gov.mo/detail/zh-hans/N26HeNcAYI), and the 30th Shandong-Taiwan trade fair in Weifang pointed to deeper cross-strait industrial integration [7](http://www.shandong.gov.cn/art/2026/9/1/art_97902_747800.html).

Green-mobility exports continue to deepen in both value-added and geography. Shandong shipped articulated CNG buses to Cartagena, Colombia, on August 29 [8](http://www.shandong.gov.cn/art/2026/8/31/art_116653_747479.html). Jiangsu's electric-motorcycle/bicycle exports rose 38.8% and Taicang port cleared about 790,000 vehicles (+80%), including 480,000 new-energy vehicles (+102%), with system-level exports like Malaysia's Kuching hydrogen smart-rail project [9](https://www.jiangsu.gov.cn/art/2026/8/31/art_84322_11822610.html). Meanwhile, the August manufacturing PMI rose 0.6 points to 49.8, with new orders at 50.6 and production at 50.4 — but small firms remain at 47.9 and employment fell to 48.7, so domestic demand is not yet strong enough to substitute for external demand [10](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202608/t20260831_1965154.html).

The risk side keeps accreting. US final affirmative anti-dumping and countervailing determinations on van-type trailers took effect in late August [11](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/31/2026-17750/van-type-trailers-and-subassemblies-thereof-from-the-peoples-republic-of-china-final-affirmative)[12](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/31/2026-17749/van-type-trailers-and-subassemblies-thereof-from-the-peoples-republic-of-china-final-affirmative), and Treasury Secretary Bessent has framed China's surplus as a systemic issue ahead of the G20 [13](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNem5JZFRaQmtXaENvYk5lOXJhSjAwOEx3bThLRWZ1SnNrTzh0VTFFaU9wemFDVTNocFhuSEpEMk9aTTBJSzBNWXlQT2JHdFdENHN5TGhtYWdSdHNFOThZWWRpbGNWWW9GOFdta2ZGcnpONVVUdjlOS2pCRi0zZklwMXlPTkxEOEdZQVlRMEdMYUF3OXBYclYyUzFIZzB2OEpHcHNTdG5wWjFlcGs5RTRxRFB3?oc=5) — story blocked by Bloomberg's paywall; prior reporting carried the substance]. The multilateral layer is where pressure is building faster than the bilateral tariff track. China is also deepening ties with Russia: Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang will attend the Eastern Economic Forum on September 2–4, with investment and energy meetings scheduled [14](https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/202608/t20260831_12013222.shtml).

Outlook: high export volumes and a large surplus persist, value-chain upgrading continues, and non-US diversification is broadening — but the accumulation of trade remedies and G20-level imbalance debate is the principal risk. The next tests are full-year 2026 destination data and the G20 communiqué.

## What changed in this reading

New official statistic: SCO members now account for 8% of China's total foreign trade ($523.5bn in 2025) [1](https://www.sc.gov.cn/10462/13241/2026/9/1/e3f8c6ca24a040a1a75add868d053e6c.shtml); CCPIT is intensifying SCO business promotion [4](https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202608/31/content_WS6a956a52c6d00ca5f9a0ce52.html). Additional regional diversification signals include Liaoning's Mongolia exhibition ($4mn order) [5](https://www.ln.gov.cn/web/ywdt/jrln/wzxx2018/2026090106574940169/index.shtml) and Macao's Singapore roadshow (74 signed projects) [6](https://www.gcs.gov.mo/detail/zh-hans/N26HeNcAYI), plus the 30th Shandong-Taiwan trade fair [7](http://www.shandong.gov.cn/art/2026/9/1/art_97902_747800.html). These deepen but do not alter the standing assessment.

## Open questions

- Will the G20 communiqué adopt language singling out China's trade surplus as 'unsustainable'?
- Can SCO and other non-US markets absorb enough Chinese exports to offset lost US demand if tariffs escalate further?
- Will new anti-dumping actions extend beyond van trailers to other industrial overcapacity products such as ships or robots?

## Evidence

1. [China's trade with other SCO member states accounts for 8% of its total foreign trade volume.](https://www.sc.gov.cn/10462/13241/2026/9/1/e3f8c6ca24a040a1a75add868d053e6c.shtml) — Sichuan Provincial Government; published 2026-09-01.
2. [High value-added products become main driver of export growth](https://www.ln.gov.cn/web/ywdt/jrln/wzxx2018/2026083107115429468/index.shtml) — Liaoning Provincial Government; published date unknown.
3. [Zhejiang's trade with other SCO members hits record high in Jan-July](https://www.ezhejiang.gov.cn/2026-08/31/c_1209664.htm) — Zhejiang Provincial Government; published 2026-08-31.
4. [China's trade promotion body steps up SCO business cooperation](https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202608/31/content_WS6a956a52c6d00ca5f9a0ce52.html) — State Council (EN); published date unknown.
5. [Third Liaoning Export Commodities Exhibition Held in Mongolia](https://www.ln.gov.cn/web/ywdt/jrln/wzxx2018/2026090106574940169/index.shtml) — Liaoning Provincial Government; published date unknown.
6. [Macau Trade, Tourism and Investment Promotion Conference successfully held in Singapore, facilitating 74 signed projects](https://www.gcs.gov.mo/detail/zh-hans/N26HeNcAYI) — Macao SAR Government press; published 2026-08-31.
7. [30th Shandong-Taiwan Economic and Trade Fair Opening Ceremony and Cross-Strait Industrial Integration High-Quality Development Conference Held](http://www.shandong.gov.cn/art/2026/9/1/art_97902_747800.html) — Shandong Provincial Government; published 2026-09-01.
8. [Articulated CNG Buses Exported to Colombia](http://www.shandong.gov.cn/art/2026/8/31/art_116653_747479.html) — Shandong Provincial Government; published 2026-08-31.
9. [Jiangsu Green Mobility Products Accelerate Global Push](https://www.jiangsu.gov.cn/art/2026/8/31/art_84322_11822610.html) — Jiangsu Provincial Government; published 2026-08-31.
10. [August 2026 China Purchasing Managers' Index Performance](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202608/t20260831_1965154.html) — National Bureau of Statistics; published 2026-08-31.
11. [Van-Type Trailers and Subassemblies Thereof From the People's Republic of China: Final Affirmative Determination of Sales at Less Than Fair Value](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/31/2026-17750/van-type-trailers-and-subassemblies-thereof-from-the-peoples-republic-of-china-final-affirmative) — US Federal Register; published 2026-08-31.
12. [Van-Type Trailers and Subassemblies Thereof From the People's Republic of China: Final Affirmative Countervailing Duty Determination](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/31/2026-17749/van-type-trailers-and-subassemblies-thereof-from-the-peoples-republic-of-china-final-affirmative) — US Federal Register; published 2026-08-31.
13. [Bessent to Push G20 to Rethink China Trade Terms, Reuters Says](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisgFBVV95cUxNem5JZFRaQmtXaENvYk5lOXJhSjAwOEx3bThLRWZ1SnNrTzh0VTFFaU9wemFDVTNocFhuSEpEMk9aTTBJSzBNWXlQT2JHdFdENHN5TGhtYWdSdHNFOThZWWRpbGNWWW9GOFdta2ZGcnpONVVUdjlOS2pCRi0zZklwMXlPTkxEOEdZQVlRMEdMYUF3OXBYclYyUzFIZzB2OEpHcHNTdG5wWjFlcGs5RTRxRFB3?oc=5) — Bloomberg; published 2026-08-31.
14. [Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun Holds Regular Press Conference on August 31, 2026](https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/202608/t20260831_12013222.shtml) — MFA (spokesperson); published 2026-08-31.

Revision dates describe China Snapshot readings, not policy effective dates. Citation overlap is not causation or a measure of importance.